NVO

"They're only declining 4%. Which is great. after 2026 it will get much easier for them to grow year on year. So this is more of a temporary problem and I think those lower prices will ultimately boost volumes which could be really bullish in the adaptation of the NVO product."

"Many of you have asked me for an update on NVO. NVO is down 35% over the last year. It's down almost 72% from its all-time high. Absolutely crazy."

"And for me personally, based on where NVO is trading at at almost 11 times earnings, I think this is enough for me to know that sales are bottoming out, that free cash flow is bottoming out, and it's likely going to get better from here, not get worse. You don't really need too much when you're buying something at 11 times earnings for the stock to do well."

"They're also guiding for uh dividends. They want to maintain the dividend. They've been paying the dividend for 31 years. Uh I think the dividend for now is safe. They have a 7.6% free cash flow yield. Their payout uh dividend dividend payout is about 4 and a.5% yield. So they still have a massive margin of safety between the free cash flow yield and the dividend yield. I think the dividend is safe for now."

"Now there are still some challenges coming up with NVO. One of them is some kind of a lawsuit that uh Ozmpic and Wiggy and Zepound can cause irreversible vision loss. You know, it got lot of attention on X. I'm not sure how serious this is, but it could potentially be something huge for NVO if it's actually true."

"But they also have a huge pipeline coming up with many different phases, many different trials and many different launches coming up. They expect one potential blockbuster launch annually uh which is a reaceleration from their previous pipeline and they also said they are looking to do acquisitions in M&A if they find the right opportunities to do so which is great and again there's a lot of launches coming for diabetes obesity blood liver cardiovascular disease they're trying to diversify away "

"But overall the investors day itself was a massive disappointment to the investors community and to the analysts in general because a lot of those investors were looking for specific revenue growth numbers, specific profitability numbers, any specific numbers, any specific guidance for the next 5 years to value NVO. But we didn't get any of that in the investors day."

"I think the dividend is safe. I believe the management team has failed to bring any certainty to investors or any kind of guidance that they can model based on there's clearly a lot of uncertainty going on a lot of competitions the tariff stuffs the administration there's so many moving parts and they were not able to provide guidance I don't know what's going to happen to the stock it's really hard for a stock to start to take off if there's no guidance to base the numbers on you don't know wha"

"And that really tells you where NVO is. a lot of uncertainty, a lot of competition, a lot of things happening and they failed to assure certainty during the investors day and in the presentation in general."

"I'm not an expert on it, but I believe overall NVO at 11 times earnings is extremely undervalued. We're likely near the bottom of the decline in revenues. It has declined 3% this year, expected to normalize in 2027 and to pick up even more in 2028. The company has the free cash flows. They have the expertise. They have everything they need for them to be able to transition away from just being a weight loss company into finding their next generation product or potentially acquiring other product"

"Now in terms of their sales guidance again they haven't provided a specific guidance which makes it extremely hard to value NVO over the next five years and it's not really ideal for the analysts that they try to model the stock once you introduce so much uncertainty. It becomes really hard to value the company."

"They are working on some next generation products. One of them is kegimma which combines simaglletide and kegilitide into one product. They call it kegrima. Uh there's a lot of hype around it. Uh I've seen a lot of trials. The latest trial was really good. They got 12.4% weight loss versus 9.4% for tisapatide. This is a major major improvement for kegimma. And this is expected to be their next generation drug because the NVO patent expires in 2032 for the wiggoi product in the United States. So "

"Before the open, Eli Lilly, Shopify, Uber, Walt Disney, Unity as well, Novo Nordisk for those interested, all before the open."

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