ORCL

"What about a company like Oracle Oracle is facing a flow a full-blown financial storm in the credit markets with its 5-year credit default swap spread skyrocketing 200 basis points up from just 40 basis points a year ago this means in ensuring Oracle's debt against default has roughly quintupled It has pushed Oracle's implied cumulative default probability over 16% making it the single most stressed investment grade technology borrower. That's crazy to even think about a 16% probability of defau"

"And it's Oracle, the database company that your bank is probably running on."

"It's it's usually a boring one. Although on Friday, as you know, Friday is always going to be spicy with BJ's reporting on Friday. You you naughty one. Anyways, on on Monday, nothing really interesting. On Tuesday before the open, it is a it is an interesting week with regards to consumer sentiment. So, we do have Home Depot. Clara could tell us a little bit with regards to the buy now pay later scene. We have BU Chinese company. Then on Wednesday, we do have Target. So, here again, you get a bi"

"We also have Oracle."

"In addition, Palunteer, Caterpillar, Tesla, Oracle, and a newer AI name called Nebus."

"Microsoft is, Oracle is, Alphabet is, Meta, everyone is spending their cash flows."

"Short, the semiconductor index, Oracle, Nebius."

"Now, some of the richest, most powerful companies on Earth, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Oracle, plus the AI makers like OpenAI are all circling the same prize."

"This is what pushed Oracle in the first place."

"And then Oracle is just a gamble like most of the market."

"Oracle is gambling, is playing the game."

"companies like Meta, Amazon and probably Oracle will do extremely well."

"If we look at Oracle in the 2000s crashed 80%"

"comes a comment swen do Oracle do Oracle. Let me give you my opinion here."

"So bold case number one, cloud infrastructure is exploding. Oracle cloud has quietly become a real alternative to AWS and Microsoft's Azure."

"So our third and final stock is heavily debated inside our community right now. It's Oracle. This stock is trading right near it 52- week low."

"this 800 billion in contractual purchase commitments for Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon a little bit less Oracle also there but not yet commenced."

"across all major cloud providers, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle."

"We'll discuss Oracle that boomed last year on these backlogs and then it reverted but okay the cloud backlog again open AI who is not doing anything with the cloud spending little money is Apple and the market is punishing it for it."

"Of course, Oracle is financially completely different but give it a year or two given the capex given the depreciation and mortization Google will look similarly."

"Oracle is up six"

"So, if you look at Oracle, you look at Microsoft, 50 to 60% of their backlog is tied to open AI, but Google has a much healthier, much more diversified backlog than many of those players."

"And we can also compare this with Oracle that highly leveraged, completely different business model, not a financial fortress, but also investing in similar things. And the market has already been hating that for 12 months. This might be next for Google."

"So what you're buying with Oracle is a company that's going to spend money upfront and then generate revenue over a long period of time."

"My name's Travis Holam. Thanks for watching Ascent Metric Investing. Please subscribe here on YouTube for all my content. And if you want more from me, check out Asymmetric Investing, my newsletter. There's a link on the screen and a link in the show notes. That's where you're going to see my full asymmetric investing portfolio as well as the asymmetric investing community. Someone I've added there recently. A lot of fun discussions going on there about what's going on in the market. But today, "

"Oracle does not have the cash on hand. That is in green right here. or $32 billion worth of cash on hand or the cash flow expecting $38 billion worth of operating cash flow continuing to increase over the next few years, but they're still going to have to take out more and more debt to be able to fund these obligations."

"So, what's the problem with that? Well, debt is already an issue for Oracle."

"I think Oracle is already in that bad situation. They don't have the lowest cost of capital. They're up against companies that have a ton of free cash flow being spa spat off by their traditional businesses, the Amazons's, Microsofts, and Googles of the world. Those companies can keep financing projects in perpetuity. Oracle simply can't. They don't have the cash flow behind their business. They got to make each of these projects work, and that's getting harder and harder by the day. So, that's "

"Oracle 32%, Adobe 34%, Lululemon down 42%, and like I just said, into it down 58%"

"I trust a Google more than an Oracle. Plus, Google has the money. Oracle doesn't, especially not at this moment."

"Even a Google, even an Amazon, a Microsoft Azure, an Oracle, a Coreweave, et cetera, et cetera. It's good for these types of players."

"Next up is Oracle. And I know [168s] I'm going to probably get a little bit [169s] of flack for this one, but they're the [171s] company that rents out the raw computing [173s] power that AI labs like OpenAI use to [176s] train their models. Through its cloud [178s] arm, OCI, Oracle builds the data centers [180s] and leases the GPU capacity to the [183s] companies that need enormous compute,"

"So that was my opinion on Oracle."

"They recently downgraded Oracle to a triple B minus, which is a little bit above junk status, you could say."

"But I think Oracle could be a buy here for people that take a lot of risks."

"It's trading right now at about 10 times price to operating cash flow. I think this is very very cheap for the company."

"And this is a big concern here with OpenAI, that half of this magnificent backlog is tied to OpenAI, and that's not good for Oracle."

"Now, in terms of the balance sheet situation, this is the worst part of Oracle. The company has $157 billion in debt, long-term, short-term, other liabilities total is $157 billion in debt against only a $31 billion cash position."

"So, as a proxy of betting on compute and betting on AI in general, I think Oracle is amazing for someone that's too aggressive, wants to take a lot of risks with potentially explosive upside potential."

"Now, in the case of Oracle, they restructured a lot of the debt previously, and it's looking much much better right now."

"But, I think Oracle over here is looking much, much better than it was at two hundred and twenty dollars per share."

"So, is Oracle going to zero? I don't think so."

"So, the setup here is looking really good not just in terms of free cash flow expansion once the CapEx is done, but also from them paying down the debt which alone will likely boost free cash flow by a major major way."

"And this is another reason why uh the company has downgraded Oracle cuz Oracle was mostly a recurring revenue software business and now they're getting more into a lot of those compute stuff and that's uh a little bit uh more volatile and a little bit uncertain for Oracle."

"It says, "OpenAI remained a key credit risk for Oracle."

"I'm seeing a lot of people on X and even on YouTube buying Z dip on Oracle's stock saying that Oracle is an amazing opportunity at a hundred and thirty dollars per share."

"Oracle down 33,"

"Six companies, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, Oracle, Alphabet, and SpaceX have borrowed more money than ever in history"

"Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, Oracle, the biggest companies in the world have been borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars to fund the AI boom."

"Next one up here, Oracle. Oracle, very controversial stock. This one has gone down immensely. It's down about 32% year-to-date, right? Oracle at rank is a five."

"with gas already flowing to Oracle's data centers"

"He has puts on Oracle"

"Meanwhile, you look at a stock like Oracle down 31% in the past three weeks."

"But the other thing about CapEx in general is if you look at those hyperscalers free cash flow, like again, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Oracle, and Meta, most of their free cash flow is pretty much nearing zero."

"But then again, it's CapEx for Google, it's CapEx for Oracle, it's CapEx for Amazon, for every other player out there."

"Oracle, Nvidia puts and NASDAQ 100 puts. If I remember correctly, Tesla just doing its thing to the moon. Palanteer going down a little bit but still going strong."

"Oracle tanked"

"Shares of Oracle fell nearly 10% on Thursday after the company reported earnings and announced that it was going to be raising another $40 billion."

"I think it's important to go through what the numbers look like for Oracle and how they're changing on a historical basis, because on the surface, when you look at their growth rate, things look pretty phenomenal for Oracle."

"This has become a huge problem for the company. Oracle already has about $120 billion worth of debt. Their capex is exploding, and right now there is not yet a return on investment for their artificial intelligence investment."

"So, Oracle, absolutely not a stock that I'm buying today. And right now, the market thinks that's the right way to look at this."

"Oracle"

"Right now Oracle again good quarter good guidance overreaction by the market but as you know the market right now is headline driven."

"And so all in all I I don't think there's something to dislike here. Yes, you can say, okay, capex increasing, right? $70 billion versus $50 billion expected, more debt, etc., etc., but all of this leads them to maybe recognize more revenue faster, grow faster, etc., etc. So, yeah, nothing bad to say about this quarter."

"You can clearly see here Oracle down 9.64%."

"So in today's video we couple of things we need to discuss. Oracle's earnings report and comments that were made during the call. Oracle at the time of recording this is down around 9 to 10%."

"Oracle. Now, Oracle reported yesterday stock is down close to 10%. As we've seen, you might say, "Oh, it must have been a bad quarter." No, it was not."

"Now, talking about Oracle, since they are going to report pretty soon, let's see at what the market is looking for."

"oracle going into the earnings report"

"etc etc with Oracle."

"But again, here with Oracle, I think it's more about backlog."

"We had a CPI report that came out with Oracle's earnings that will come out after the market closes."

"We have your Oracle, but Oracle does report their quarterly figures later this week. I think even tomorrow, Wednesday after the market closes. This one is also going to be a very important one for all of the other new cloud players out there. Can Oracle start to convert that huge backlog into actual revenue growth, acceleration in growth, and maybe maybe some profit."

"Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, and AMD are running the exact same cloud credit loops to pump their own ecosystems."

"major companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, and AMD are actively pumping up their revenues using circular financing."

"Next week, we do have two big ones. I would say we have, of course, a very big one in the AI space, which is Oracle."

"Oracle stock down 9 plus%."

"Oracle even locked in a master agreement for up to 2.8 8 gawatt and a signed a $2.6 billion agreement covering Amazon and another customer and Brookfield committed $5 billion to finance further Bloom deployments at AI sites."

"Micron 6.5, Oracle 3.2. So it makes sense, right?"

"You have with a lot [73s] of the Neoclouds or even a company like [75s] Oracle. So, let's dig into exactly what"